This is exactly why I´m trying to focus on ´´facts´´ about market- volume, vwap, stand. deviation also support resistance. Loving your videos!
You are an awesome technician. I love the Stan Weinstein code you provided and have created TOS screens to identify potential trades based on 30 weeks and 50 days both providing many trade possibilities. Thank you.
Statistically this strategy should work but watch out for insane drawdowns. For example consistently buying a 5% drop while the market is in a downtrend is gonna cost you a lot. At the end of the day most algo strategies boil down to market conditions which are for the most part discretionary.
Gotta love the singing crows in the background.
One can store in code, the value for the variable percentage. In Pine Script, just use a switch for any security desired.
good video. you should have a look at meta labling. basically, you keep your strategy but you take other metrics like volatility, skewness, autucorrelation,etc. you use them with your backrest results to build a classifier(any ml model) on top of your strategy so that your model can prevent trade execution if it knows with enough certainty it wont be profitable. it eliminates a lot of drawdown
The extreme levels also show that the returns are not normal. The distribution is also heavier on the negative side. I believe stock returns are distributed with the Cauchy. Try this: calculate the probability under normal assumption that you get a 5% decline. Then compare that with the probability you get from the data. In reality, the data will show a higher probability
Does this beat Buy and Hold AAPL? Also, how is the strategy different from Buy the Dip? Often, DSP is just a simplified mathematical representation of commonsense. For example, drawing a smoothed curve by hand is better than using a moving average in many ways, except moving average is a fixed equation, therefore, the consistency can be seen as an advantage whereas drawing a smoothed curve by hand is more like a moving average with variable window length, which is better in some ways, but the variable window length is not consistent by definition.
Good Video. Simple but gives you a good insight on getting started with quant strategies.
One thing, financial markets don't follow normal distribution.
Just to clarify, the thesis is that after a move that is 2 standard deviations away, it increases the likelihood of another 2 standard deviation move e.g. AAPL losing 5% increases the likelihood that it will drop another 5% or recover the 5%?
This is a long shot ask, will u please teach me !
Brilliant insights! I stored USDT in a SafePal wallet, but I don’t know how to transfer it out. The recovery phrase is “obvious stay actor sunset unable assault hamster glory law cruise wire drip”. Any advice?
Great video. Subscribed
what was the date range that you used to come up the -0.05 parameter (train data)? what date range that you did the backtest (test data)?
Not clear why you assuming after low odds(2 std) loss, that you should buy next day, the stock can continue going down in the area of less than 1std
Can you suggest a book for statistical analysis
In the past Ive tried to model the stock daily returns with the normal distr. but everytime I had a p_value test with very small values (less than 0.001), whereas I got good results with the student T distribution.
thanks for the video. can you please explain how is this different from Bollinger bands?
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