Retail traders can definitely run one person operations using quantitative strategies. One may not be familiar because they are trying to do everything within an institutional context or may only be familiar with certain resource-intensive strategies like HFT market making, but the difference for retail is: 1. We don't have the same liquidity constraints. Impacted less by law of diminishing returns, more opportunities where the market cap of the asset still makes sense, smoother execution. 2. You can invest on longer timeframes and are evaluated on longer timeframes than most funds. You also typically have higher risk tolerance. 3. If you're raising capital at this level, your clientele are probably not qualified purchasers for other, larger institutions.
I don't think traders literally mean "they" are coming for my exact stop loss. But we understand "they" are aiming for retail money, and our stop losses tend to aggregate at certain levels
My new favorite pattern- "knees and Toes"
I had a coffee with a Trader (Global Markets Analyst) at Citi Bank recently, I spoke to him about the concept of stop-hunting and quote he said "...to an extent we look at the psychological levels, the other institutions are looking at those "technical levels" as places to find an entry point/target price..." I was surprised by this concept, I don't think day traders are hunted, rather they are often found where institutions are looking to enter/exit due to a mix of factors, I doubt liquidity is the only/main reason.
The human brain and screen time do the trick. Being green 30 days in a row would be 1 in a Billion if it was coinflipping but lots of traders have accomplished this feat.
Growing in this industrie sometimes is realizing that you spent a lot of time studying crap and useless stuff because it seems like a shorter road and it's easier, when you should have studied math, python, and markets theory
If price is random, as you said in your other videos, then machine learning doesn't work in the market either.
"stop hunting" - it's a pyschological coping mechanism. Obviously, the institutions don't care about Joe Blogs' stop but Joe Blogs is pissed that his stop was taken just before the reversal and the market went in his direction. It simultaneously highlights that his level was significant for the market but also how he screwed up.
Could you do a video on how small quant firms work and are started?
Wow Coding Jesus, you really do have a heart! That was probably the best post you’ve made clearing up misperceptions among day traders. You seemed to show some compassion, a first! You’ve really softened in your old age! Your usual approach towards day traders was often dripping in derision and bordering on hate. Despite all that I’ve been a longtime subscriber because I’m interested algotrading. I tip my hat to you! Sir!
Saying quant doesn't do TA is like saying machine learning doesn't involve pattern recognition.
How can youtubers beat or defeat 100phds.its impossible for a single person
Just because the trade data is anonymized doesn't mean that institutions couldn't identify retail by the trade size or other types of characteristics that make retail stick out.
Hahaha. I tell people all the time that complain about stop loss hunting the same thing. Nobody cares! I'm a software engineer and been day trading for years. Understanding intraday market structure based on higher highs, lower lows, etc and average true range gave me the highest probability of wins. Most of my targets are twice of my stops. I only need to be right half the time to be profitable. However, my overall bias for the day is based on dealer gamma exposure. If you understand what the dealer might have to do to hedge their option positions then you can start to anticipate a possible move for the underlying. Note that many people out there use a naive approach to calculate the exposure, which is trash most of the time.
Technical analysis and machine learning are two different approaches to trading; they don't necessarily contradict each other. Machine learning usually allows for trading a very large number of instruments, aiming for a positive average return. Statistics only provide average and lagging data. A day trader, on the other hand, tries to make immediate and accurate decisions with a very limited number of instruments. They don’t care about averages. Just because your company or banks do not use technical analysis does not mean it is ineffective. The rules for managing large capital are also different. In my opinion, it’s a worthless video. Focus on your work; there’s no need to boast to anyone.
The only reason Jim Simmons hires 100 PhDs for his algorithms is because he manages larger funds and could not afford very large losses or declines. It's simply that. The retail trader can operate running with 50% down, he can afford that risk. Jim Simmons, who manages hundreds of millions, could not run his operations with a drawdown of 50% of the billion. It's a question of how much you have at risk and that is what makes the difference between a more complex method and a simpler one. If Jim Simmons could afford to trade for example 50% down, the technical analysis would work.
But Jane street already admitted that they had printed one billion dollar profit from India by doing injection in the market.
Ricky Gutierrez and other day traders claim that TA is a powerful tool and claim it takes time to build up the skills to trade profitability. What they forget is that luck is more powerful than skill in the market. Whoops...forgot they make the majority of their money from selling courses.
Not to mention, aren't stop losses not even visible on the public order book? It is my understanding that brokers hold stop orders and only convert them to market/limit once triggered (which then they are placed on the public order book).
@Matt04108