@afafssaf925
The conclusion: if 1$ is 80% of your money, don't take the bet.
@zelllers
My conclusion from learning this and then exploring it further over the past few weeks: Throughout history, there exist at least a few bets where we, as a society, are all in. Therefore, we're all screwed eventually.
@frenchmarty7446
The (oversimplified) gist of his point: Losing streaks exist. Even at only a 30% chance of losing, with 80% of your capital invested you can get wiped out very quickly by one or more bad strings of luck.
@MrPlaythroughhd
“On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”
@MrRk540
Nasim, I was a year ago asked about taking a bet in an interview. I did not get the job because I took the bet blindly as anyone would given the odds. The feedback was that I did not understand risk. I ranked my brains on it for days on end. I did not realize Kelly was the answer.
@TooCloseToHome
Laying out the math and the code for the simulation not only proves the point, it makes it clearer intuitively, you can see (experience) how it works. Cheers!
@prashanth1047
May you live a hundred years, sir.
@bjoernaagaard
God bless you Nassim!
@yoaadi
Thanks for the video, I learnt a lot. Had to spend 15 minutes on Wikipedia to understand what you were saying. You make a very confusing and shocking remark about the $1 bet in the beginning without talking about how much money you have. It did a good job of piquing interest, but confuses the listener.
@Elim4ne
"Why will you go bust ? Because there will be a few times when you're gonna lose everything" NNT laughing :))
@skc909887u
Pure gold and extremely useful. Thank you NNT
@holymaccaronister
I don't think enough information was given at the start of the video, since if the 70% bet of winning one dollar would be unfavourable it would assume that the one dollar would be more than 40% of one's portfolio
@JackIsNotInTheBox
Why does this feel like I'm in a stats lecture? This guy must be a professor.
@rfly05
It is weird to come to trading (of which I've done very little) after reading N N Taleb, as I'm sure many of his ideas are so obvious to traders, which is to say, real-world risk-takers.
@afivey
Thanks for prefacing the video with the analogy. EDIT: Are there any studies on the phenomenon of math becoming more interesting and understandable when it is taught because the student is a trader?
@dphdmn
i understand like nothing from this video, but this is just nonsense. in this game you are getting 0.4$ in average each time, so it's obviously a good strategy, no reason to make those complicated models. upd: ok, one guy explained it to me. so basically this is not about "bet one dollar each time", but "bet all your money each time". well, then it's obvious that you will eventually lose everything, even with 99% chance of winning, if you keep playing, still no reason to make those weird models. you just must always bet only small part of your money, and the exact optimal ratio of it is what interesting. question about "1 dollar" was so misleading, the actual topic is NOT counterintuitive.
@billyremake8090
I think i am not getting the problem here. So what he is telling us is if someone offers us to to a 70-30% bet with 1$ on the line every time and repeat it 100.000 times we will get bankrupt? What does it even mean that the graph is below 0 on the right side?
@blocksbrains4911
My new favorite channel
@orlandospencer
THANK YOU NNT!!! Recently read the revised version of black swan. I’ve never thought of investing until then I get a better understanding of managing risk and unforeseen situations. Let me just say that this video brought to my mind in such clarity how risk and bedding work with probability. I am not a statistician and my math skill is dismal. But as I’m sure you would say, I am one of your friend, as I read for knowledge and to expand what I know, and not Just for reading sake.
@davidakoji3696