@karitanaw
It's a bit annoying and unfortunate. When i was born, the national debt was $2,150 per person. Now it's over $100,000 per person. And I'm not even that old. It's truly alarming and best advice get out of debt, make regular investments and be debt free and financially stable.
@stephenmark-q1b-w3y
This will end ugly you say. But every crash brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped. I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid crash, and even pull it off easily in favorable conditions. Unequivocally, the bubble/collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich.
@watchlover7750
Peter never cease to be overoptimistic when it comes to USA future....
@renearces704
Why would China sell US treasuries when appreciating their currency is harmful to their economy? Most people in the finance world were saying it was Japan, not China dumping tbills. Bessent said it was over leveraged hedge funds. 10 year treasury rate is back down anyway from that event…
@sarawilliam696
The US economy cannot survive without continuous credit and debt creation. The FED will print more money and the average American will go just that much further in debt. Meanwhile, foreigners lust for the greenback. Their economies are in worse condition than the US... if that's even possible. Someone is going to be left holding the bag...
@flioink
🔥"This is fine!"🔥
@Stanislav-p3m
What's scary is the prospective a falling international demand for bonds
@Timehasfallenasleep
I recall in a previous video Peter said if the Chinese tried to sell their US Treasuries then the US would lower their worth so that China would get next to nothing for them. That doesn’t seem to be happening.
@xbulsara
The US government debt may not be scary, but the US government is.
@Vision-ey6fi
Here is an example of what we all have to look forward to. Recently I spent over $1100 on a pair of eyeglasses, $200 out of pocket, the rest was paid by my med insurance which only gave me certain companies that I could buy form. In the past I had purchased the same glasses, with better lenses and free high tech coatings from an optical shop in Taiwan. They gave excellent service and offered options that the American company did not, and they cost about $950 dollars less. The coating were free, the drilling of the lenses for frameless specs was free and there was more choices and variety in shapes and other options like different auto darkening, mirroring, and polarization. I think this pretty much shows what is going to happen with consumer goods. With EyeCenter everything costs, and I was not even able to get the thin lenses that make frameless glasses really lite. All and all it sucked and if it weren't for the insurance I would have bought form Taiwan again because even with the tariffs it would have been much less expensive and higher quality. That's what's coming. The rest of the world will have electric supercars that sell for the price of a used honda and we will be forced to buy overpriced and out dated products, that put people in debt for half a decade.
@robertmanning2940
No worries, Peter. The interest rate on the 10 yr is headed DOWN, probably because the Congress has not yet raised the "debt ceiling". The US national debt is unpayable and will, at some point, be defaulted, but so far no one is worried
@aussiejohn3941
More chaos! How unsurprising! Chaos, chaos, chaos. Imagine making the case that being $36T in debt is OK. Here's a better question...what has the $36T gone? What has the US got for it? Infrastructure? Nope. Higher living standards? Nope. Lunacy.
@brauefarst1925
At this point, who has the capability to pay back the national debt owed? Who in the US, any county, city, or state? The consequence is controlled inflation.
@richardtaylor7170
My own raving analysis, feel free to ignore: I cannot express how much I hate that basically every optimistic take on the US economy comes down to this, that the US is so entrenched at the center of the world financial/trade system that everyone else melts down faster. With that said, I think that this confirms what I've thought for a long time, which is just that Peter is irrationally bullish on the United States and unwilling to update his assessments. Two years ago I saw the world successfully manage to steer through Covid (something that I was very pessimistic on just in terms of the short run economic consequences). There was a relevant uptick in unemployment and deficits (which never properly went down), but all-in-all it was a small price to pay. With demographic crises looming in other countrys, China's housing market looking shaky (and Chinese migration to the US), and Mexico really emerging as a a manufacturing powerhouse (ironically the biggest success of the first Trump presidency), I found Peter's hypothesis more plausible than I ever had before. I don't have that confidence anymore. First and foremost is just the fact that the US managed to run Great Recession style deficits in the last year despite reasonably positive economic growth and no alarming signs of a downturn. Interest payments outstripped military spending as a percentage of GDP. This predates Trump and is not his fault. The economy has not yet hit a major downturn. In 2007 the debt was something like 60% of GDP and the deficit was something like 1% of GDP. Now we're at 125% and shy of 7%. Our congress plays chicken on an annual basis with passing a budget and risking a government shutdown. The Fed is struggling to bring down interest rates. Do you believe in math? Every year that debt number goes up, the more money needs to be paid to service the debt, which makes the debt go up. This is at any interest rate. The only way I see this as being sustainable for a decade is if interest rates don't rise and economic growth remains strong, preferably with reasonably strong inflation, all of which keep interest payments steady while eating away at the debt. If any one of those things breaks we're probably in a spiral. If the US enters recession now it increases spending and decreases revenue, deficits skyrocket. If we don't recover then that grows substantially, if we do recover interest payments on that rise substantially when we get out. Social Security is going to go bankrupt independent of this, it's hard to see a way out before a spiral of debt makes a meltdown unavoidable. I was cautiously optimistic about Trump II, but the last month has really anihillated that. Unless the administration takes the mother of all sharp turns away from its current policies, we're going to enter a self-induced recession caused by declining world trade caused by our own moronic policies. At the same time the US looks erratic and unstable. Given a looming recession the Fed is in the worst of all possible scenarios where you have a supply-driven recession and it has to choose between A.very high inflation or B.very high unemployment. If it chooses case A, then we're in danger of losing world reserve currency status as the dollar rapidly depreciates and we have to hope Peter's "Only Game in Town" argument can hold even while the dollar depreciates rapidly. It's really not a weak argument, but make no mistake, if the dollar as the world reserve currency didn't exist, no one would invent it. It's not obvious there needs to be a WRC, rather than just baskets of currencies. If we lose WRB status then trillions of dollars overseas come to the US, the price of all imports skyrocket (beyond whatever these tariffs are), and trillions of dollars of federal debt and dollar denominated bonds flood the market, causing interest rates to spike, borrowing costs increase substantially with the hope that lower-paying American export markets rebound GDP, but really I think this would just make new debt loads totally unsustainable. If the Fed uncharacteristically picks case B (high unemployment), then the deficit explodes for years and we have to hope that the loss of world reserve currency described above or a dumping of US debt doesn't happen has deficits skyrocket. A counteracting force for case B is exactly that during a deep recession government bonds may be seen as safer. All of this is why rates on US debt spiking suddenly is a big deal. The less safe that US debt is seen, the worse these problems become. The more uncertainty surrounding the US economy and debt service (something that Trump is doing a great job of stirring), the more these problems are exacerbated. These are serious concerns that one significant jolt to the system (which seems more likely than ever), the more this whole thing could just crash down, and with it most every long-term positive prediction for the US.
@travy521
When a central bank starts printing money to buy their own debt, isn’t the result inflation? With the amount of debt obligations the US has, that seems like it would get out of control pretty quick.
@ashroskell
“Gives you a lot of options that nobody else has,” but also which nobody else needs! After all, isn’t that the point? Inflation is a trigger word to republicans. Well, you can’t print more money and not expect rampant inflation.
@HazemeII
so we're fine, everything's fine. no need to fix the spending or the debt. someone needs to pull their head out of the sand.
@nomennescio4604
Feels a bit like a throw-back to the kind of analysis of how the US Will Inherit The Earth (everyone else is screwed) that used to be a staple. We'll see, but this channel now derives more interest from watching Zeihan work out what the devil is going on on real-time. This upload didn't seem like part of that.
@MrOzyreusz
strange to compare demographic data even with EU decline when EU has almost 25% bigger population than the US, 450 mil. It is getting older but to compare the workforce and children for the next 10 years it seams that those estimates are bias
@OlSCrabs