I like how you always have your own genuine opinion that isn't swayed by tribalism, which is unfortunately way too common today.
I give you my respect for sharing your thoughts and subjecting yourself to the discussion and criticism around such a hot topic.
One of the few people online whose two cents I genuinely care to listen to.
Thanks for keeping it real and being so transparent. Lucky to find your channel
While I agree with take on the effect of tariff, I disagree on how it would be better off for America. 1. Trump's tariff is indiscriminate, unless America wants to make everything themselves and become self-sufficient, it doesn't make sense. 2. There's now an exemption for electronic goods for China so your point about how tariff is necessary to incentivize security sensitive supply chain to America (which I also agree it is important) fell short. 3. America is alienating everyone else with tariffs, even Canada, so to say tariff will help America stay on top, I just find it very hard to connect the dots. 4. Tariff disproportionately affect lower income household in comparison to high income household. Widening the income inequality by taxing the poor to fund the rich seems like a bad strategy. 5. The tariff formula was used incorrectly to calculate the tariff. Brent Neiman had to defend his work because it was cited to justify the tariff calculation.
Trump: We're going to tariff China. Trump: We're going to exempt tariffs on phones and computers.
4:50 That's an extremely silly take. China still has around 160 million people working low wage manufacturing jobs regardless of Automations existence. Simply pointing out that their Auto manufacturing is heavily automated is disingenuous. China makes tons of other goods through thousands of factories/sweatshops.
It's interesting to see how now we can just get away with illogical uniform tariffs on all countries, break off from long-term allies, and then find justifications that it all leads back to China. One thing about very smart people is they will try to rationalize even the most irrational behaviors. It's hard to admit, but perhaps we just voted in an idiot who makes stupid decisions? I think this video is a great example that expertise and knowledge in one area doesn't always transfer to others.
Love how clearly you explain the history and current circumstances
But it's not just China. The US is decoupling with EVERY ally they have. The tariffs started w Mexico and Canada. The execution is also incredibly bad and not well planned, the communication is horrible. I see your point but i feel like you are not painting the full picture. If it were just China they would probably try to strenghten their bond w allies and not piss everyone off
Beautiful background for cherry blossom season, hope you’re enjoying your travels, love your takes!
Right cuz nothing promotes manufacturing and innovation quite like a financial crisis. Using tariffs to promote domestic production is like trying to build a house with nothing but a sledge hammer.
Our fearless hero is BACK!! Thanks for another video drop, Lit Made my morning
This is a breath of fresh air for everyone that doesn’t trust the mass media. We need more American grassroots discussions of policy
I agree we need a level of manufacturing in the US for security reasons. However, I disagree that mass blanket tariffs are the way.
I agree mostly with your analysis, but I don’t think it’s realistic for manufacturing to move to America right now. Setting up a factory is expensive and interest rates are quite high at the moment. That makes it difficult for a company to acquire the necessary capital for a factory. That, plus the fact that the tariffs keep flip-flopping, create an environment where companies would rather wait and see what happens with tariffs instead of beginning to move manufacturing to the US. It’s kind of just erasing the American people’s money without actually accomplishing anything so far.
The problem with the trade deficit idea being a problem is that it neglects Solow Growth theory. Y = A · K^α · L^(1−α) Y = output (GDP) A = total factor productivity (TFP) — often interpreted as technology K = capital L = labor α = capital's share of income (typically ~0.3) The leader in technological innovation is not really going to need to balance a trade deficit because most of their growth is coming from technological growth (A). This renders unbalanced trade irrelevant. Additionally, tariffs have historically not been successful at balancing trade deficits. Smoot Hawley act of 1930. It aimed to act protectionism of American goods. Instead of solving the trade deficit, it lead to US exports falling by 60% and heavily prolonged the Great Depression. I’d challenge you to find a tariff that’s been enacted that didn’t lead to a fall in exports.
Thanks!
Completely agree. Its only not a common opinion outside of high finance. Within high finance you are hard pressed to find anyone who doesnt share that same sentiment. The guy has Bessent, Navarro, Lutnick, absolutely rockstar stacked administration of people playing 4D chess with global macro. Think the country is in very good hands, at least economically. Also, if history is any indication, the country on the side of the trade surplus is going to lose the tariff negotiation, people dont seem to fully comprehend this.
@LitNomad