@Patashu

I knew the matrix way of doing it, but directly writing down the system of equations (method 1) is really clever and I'll have to remember it.

@ericfielding668

I remember simulating situations akin to this.  The more complicated the transistion matrix, the easier it was to simply run a simulation (instead of working the probabilities out).

@ron-math

Correction: 3:05 Go "from" lily pad No. 3.