Make Better Decisions With Less Data - Bayesian Statistics (Part 2)

In Part 2 of our Bayesian series (Part 1:    • The Most Important Concept in Probability:...  ), we will learn how Bayes' theorem can be used in statistics!

We will come up with our estimate of a model parameter via the Bayesian approach, and we will use our Bayesian result to answer a realistic question. This is a slight twist on the infamous 'sun rise problem', with some alterations made to make everything a bit more clear, hopefully (e.g., modeling everything discretely).

Interested in having me continue this series with other topics (e.g., conjugate priors)? If so, don't hesitate to leave a comment!

0:00 Baby You and the Sun
0:33 What is Bayesian Statistics?
1:22 Bayes' Theorem: Quick Review
2:50 Bayes' Theorem: Statistics
3:46 Prior Distribution
4:36 Likelihood Function
5:22 Evidence
6:52 Bringing It All Together: Posterior
9:38 So, What is the Chance the Sun Will Rise?
11:18 Parting Thoughts

#datascience #statistics #bayesianstatistics #bayestheorem #tutorial #mathematics #SoMEpi

A thank you is due to SonduckFilm (www.sonduckfilm.com/tutorials/), who provided a very helpful tutorial for the sun rise animation in this video.

A Python-based solution to our problem can be found here: github.com/RiskByNumbers/Video-Scripts

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As mentioned in my last video, we now have a RiskByNumbers blog (riskbynumbers.org and riskbynumbers.com)! While it is still new, feel free to check it out to learn more about the plans for the platform. You can sign up there to receive the latest updates -- I promise that I will do my best to not spam your inbox! Once this Bayesian series wraps up, I will turn my attention towards providing written explainers to folks.

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If this is your first video, welcome! I am a professor sharing educational resources around probability, statistics, optimization methods, algorithms, and programming to a broad audience.

Outside of YouTube, you can currently find me in Vancouver, Canada at the University of British Columbia.

Thank you, and I look forward to seeing you in future videos!

Email: RiskByNumbers@gmail.com.
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/omar-swei/