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🌪️ SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK – SUNDAY, MAY 25, 2025 (16:30Z Update)
SPC Risk Level: ENHANCED (Level 3 of 5)
Valid through 7 AM CDT Monday
📍 Major Cities in Risk Zones
🟠 ENHANCED Risk (5.6M people): Memphis, TN, Oklahoma City, OK, Lubbock, TX, Abilene, TX, Norman, OK
🟡 SLIGHT Risk (16.8M people): Dallas, TX, Fort Worth, TX, Tulsa, OK, Arlington, TX, Plano, TX
🟢 MARGINAL Risk (36.6M people): Jacksonville, FL, Denver, CO, Atlanta, GA, Miami, FL, Colorado Springs, CO
🌪️ Tornado Risk Zones
🟤 5% Tornado Risk: Memphis, TN, Lubbock, TX, Wichita Falls, TX, Lawton, OK, Pine Bluff, AR
🟢 2% Tornado Risk: Dallas, TX, Fort Worth, TX, Denver, CO, Oklahoma City, OK, Tulsa, OK
What the Percentages Mean
A 5% tornado risk means there's a 1 in 20 chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any point in the zone. This is a credible tornado threat, especially in northwest TX and parts of central/eastern OK and the Mid-South.
📝 Overview
A multi-regional severe weather event is expected this afternoon and evening across the Southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley.
Supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments may produce very large hail, damaging winds (75+ mph), and a few tornadoes—especially across northwest TX, southern OK, and the Mid-South region.
Separate severe potential also exists across the CO Front Range and parts of Florida.
⛈️ Hazards Include
🌪️ A few tornadoes possible (including with evening clusters)
🧊 Very large hail (2–3" diameter possible)
💨 Damaging wind gusts (some 75+ mph), especially with bowing clusters
🕓 Timeline
🕒 Mid to Late Afternoon (3–6 PM CDT): Supercells initiate along dryline in TX Panhandle and western OK
🌆 Evening (6–9 PM CDT): Tornado, hail, and wind threat peaks across OK and into the ArkLaTex
🌒 Overnight (9 PM–2 AM): Bowing MCS possible across southern OK and north TX; severe wind potential continues
📌 Regional Notes
🟠 North TX and southern OK: Best combo of instability/shear for supercells, hail, and tornadoes
🟡 Mid-South (AR/TN/MS): MCS evolution could bring widespread damaging winds
🟢 Eastern NM and CO Front Range: Isolated severe storms with large hail, especially east of foothills
🟢 Florida Peninsula: Scattered sea-breeze storms with gusty wind/hail potential
⚠️ Stay Weather-Aware
If you're in or near Oklahoma City, Lubbock, Memphis, or Wichita Falls, conditions are favorable for tornadoes and large hail this evening.
Have your tornado plan ready, keep your phones charged, and be ready to act quickly if warnings are issued.
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And HUGE Thanks to RED EARTH TECH! - www.red-earth.tech/
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